With an eye toward simplicity, and noting that we are most concerned with large impacts, we center our analysis on the idea that impacts should be felt most in the groups with the highest mean exposure. We compare workers in the top quartile of time-weighted task coverage to those in the bottom. If AI capabilities advance quickly, task coverage might be high for lower percentiles of coverage, which might make an absolute threshold more helpful. But we make the assumption that impacts should affect the most exposed workers first, and present results varying the cutoff we use to define treatment.
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Russell Brandom